Jharkhand election

With 81 Assembly constituencies Jharkand goes for polls, from November 30 to December 20.Election commission announcing its 5-phase voting schedule for Jharkhand. Jharkhand turns out to be a slugfest between BJP  and Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance. The incumbent chief minister Raghubar Das after providing a stable government in a rather unstable political situation till then in Jharkhand. Tribal population in resource-rich Jharkhand is 26.3 percent of the state population, the vote of tribals will be the deciding factor in this election. With his rather unpopular image among tribals because of tenancy act(which provides private companies to acquire land from tribals) and the mergers of small government schools into big(Which made small schools in tribal land inaccessible to tribals), the incumbent CM Raghubar Das had gone through a lot of protests from the tribal communities. Being a non-tribal and became unpopular among tribals is a factor in this election.BJP going solo in this elections without its Allie, All Jharkhand Students Union(AJSU) can disturb its tribal votes. Although BJP has done very well in LOK SABHA polls in the state, it is the only ray of hope. With showing of BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana, congress in an optimistic mood trying to strengthen its hold in the state. With the positive moves by the central government by removing 370 articles can appease Jharkhand educated class to vote for BJP. With All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the race, it can be analyzed if it cut through the Muslim base of congress it can help BJP.AIMIM can be a spoiler for Congress and allies. With its tail up congress and its allies are stronger this time, at least it has some brightest prospect with the mistakes of the incumbent government. After the Loksabha elections win, the BJP government started to appease tribals in its last minute's effects by launching 462 Eklavya Model Residential Schools, it is yet to be seen if its enough to churn votes in their favor. Jharkhand government has done a reasonable work on choking Naxal violence, is definitely a strong point but if it turns out into votes is yet to be seen. If the Loksabha elections trend is anything to go by, it favors an incumbent government but I feel it needs AJSU. I conclude,  there is opposition towards the incumbent government, how much it dents its vote is to be seen, the infighting with AJSU can dent its tribal votes. Overall, I feel it will not be a cakewalk for BJP.